8

Bringing climate change impact
assessment to the human scale
FRANK DUERDEN, PROFESSOR, SCHOOL OF APPLIED GEOGRAPHY,
RYERSON UNIVERSITY

The message the NCE Gap Analysis delivers about our
understanding of the impacts of climate change on human
activity is not very reassuring because it tells us that much
of the information is not very useful for application at the
scale at which people live.
Changes in the physical environment cannot be
translated into local impacts without consideration of
conditions on the ground in places that are affected,
community histories and economies, and the attitudes of local
populations and decision makers.
Information deficiencies are compounded by the fact that,
while it is widely recognized that the importance of
information lies in reducing uncertainty by pointing decision
makers towards the most probable futures, relatively little
is known about who is listening and who is using the
information.
The Gap exercise indicates a need to develop a rigorous
community-scale database focused on vulnerability of human
activity to climate change. Such a pan-northern endeavour
would assist in making difficult decisions about allocation of
resources, provide more balanced assessments of possible
impacts, and enable local decision makers to assess threat,
vulnerability, and opportunity as a basis for formulating
responses.
The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) and the current
Gap Analysis were very cost-effective research undertakings,
exemplifying the real value added through cooperation among
governments, universities and communities. While they only
provided glimpses of a much larger picture—MBIS
exemplifying the type of research that needs to be done
across the North, and the Gap Analysis telling us what we
need to know—they pointed the way towards the future.
Climate change has the capacity to fundamentally change life
in the North, but the transition to a warmer world would be a
much less uncertain process if this rich nation, which prides
itself on its “northern” image, were to commit itself to
supporting a systematic pan-northern assessment of
community vulnerability.

My number one priority?
Developing a network of
northern research observatories
DAVID HIK, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AND CANADA RESEARCH CHAIR
IN NORTHERN ECOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA

One of the greatest problems identified by the NCE Gap
Analysis was the paucity of good information from baseline
monitoring and experimental studies against which to
assess natural variability and change.
Unless a concerted effort is made to establish and/or
maintain a network of high quality monitoring and research
sites across northern Canada, it will remain very difficult to
accurately assess the impacts of climate change and
variability. Consequently, science will be unable to provide
useful information for communities and governments to plan
for the future.
To provide this information, it is essential to observe ecological
and physical phenomena over many years at large spatial
scales. A network of research observatories would promote
comparative research across northern ecosystems, and help to
ensure a synthesis of these results in a national and
international context.
I recommend the development of a network of integrated
ecological, physical, and climatological research observatories.
There are a number of long-term research efforts in northern
Canada, all struggling to secure adequate funding, that could
easily fall under this program—for example, the Canadian
Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) and the Kluane
Ecosystem Monitoring Project (KEMP).
Models for such programs include the US and International
Long-term Ecological Research Programs (LTER and ILTER).
More generally, these research programs are sometimes
referred to as “Integrated Regional Impact Studies” (IRIS).
A good example in northern Canada was the Mackenzie Basin
Impact Study during the 1990s.
Long-term commitments to monitoring and research in
northern Canada are not impossible to imagine, but success
will depend on engaging communities, governments, and
scientists in collaborative efforts. Such collaborations occur
already, but are often sporadically or poorly funded.
Stable baseline funding is a prerequisite, but even more
important is the recognition that only coordinated efforts will
provide the information that is required for developing
practical, sensible, and sustainable adaptation strategies in the
face of unprecedented environmental change in the North.

The Northern Climate ExChange Gap Analysis Project
An assessment of the current state of knowledge
about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada
The substantial increase in climate
Beginning in 1999 and carrying on into
change research in the past decade has
2002, the Northern Climate ExChange
made it difficult to keep track of all the
(NCE) coordinated the Gap Analysis
various projects related to understanding,
Project, aimed at assessing the current
preventing, and mitigating climate change
state of knowledge about climate change
impacts. This situation has almost
and its impacts in northern Canada. With
certainly led to overlapping research,
Environment Canada as its main partner,
unnecessary duplication of effort, and
and with consulting help from the
ineffective use of limited time and
University of Alberta, Ryerson University,
resources. In addition,
GeoNorth Limited
there has been no
and LegendSeekers
Sharing
information
among
overall vision guiding
Anthropological
all parties and interest groups Research, NCE set
the allocation of
efforts and resources.
out to meet several
can be a challenge,
major objectives:
but it is essential.
Communication has
• Determine what is
been limited among
the various groups and
currently known
organizations involved in and concerned
about climate change and its impacts
about climate change: researchers,
in northern Canada, and incorporate
communities, indigenous peoples, nonthis information into a database.
government organizations, industry, and
• Identify trends or patterns in the
many levels of government. This has
available information.
made it difficult to exchange information,
• Use this information to help identify
to correlate scientific knowledge and local
research, monitoring, technological,
information, and to return the results of
and policy priorities.
research to the people experiencing the
• Improve collaboration and coordination
effects of climate change most directly.
among and between researchers,
Sharing information among all of these
communities, governments, nondifferent parties and interest groups can
government organizations, and
be a challenge, but it is essential. When
residents of northern Canada.
knowledge is not shared, everyone’s
The overall goal of the project was to
understanding of climate change and its
determine where information on climate
impacts is diminished.

change is adequate and where there are
gaps. Documenting existing knowledge
will provide sound baseline information
on what is known about climate change
and its effects on northern Canada. This
information will assist those attempting
to establish priorities for climate change
research, monitoring, technological
development, policy development, and
other matters in Canada’s North. It will
also help to facilitate links between
different people and organizations
working towards similar goals.
The NCE Gap Analysis Project has
created several products that offer an
continued on page 2 . . .

contents
2 Welcome to
3 Reports assess climate change
4 How to use the Matrix Maker
5 Building the Knowledge Matrices
6 Infosources Database
6 Directory of Contacts
7 Taking the next step
8 ExChanging Views

2

Welcome to the first edition of Weathering Change

As part of the national strategy to meet
these commitments, the National Climate
Change Process established the Canadian
Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research
Network (C-CIARN) and the Public
Education and Outreach (PEO) Hubs,
which have offices across the country.
The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE),

Taking the next step on the Gap Analysis: C-CIARN North

established in 2000 by the Government
Our work on the Gap Analysis Project,
of Canada, Yukon Government, and
which is summarized in this inaugural
Yukon College,
edition of Weathering
delivers these
Change, first brought
programs in the
to our attention the
Yukon. The mandate
need for a vehicle to
of the NCE is to
summarize the latest
provide an
in research and
independent source
technical information.
of information,
Weathering Change
develop shared
Permafrost makes building in the North tricky. was designed with
understanding, and
this in mind. Each
promote action on climate change in
issue will feature articles on a selected
northern Canada.
I&A topic that is of relevance to northern
communities and environments.
This newsletter is a joint initiative of the
NCE and its PEO Hub and C-CIARN North
Please contact Aynslie Ogden at
programs. These programs have a
aogden@yukoncollege.yk.ca or
common objective: to improve information
867-668-8735 with your comments and
exchange and increase the visibility and
suggestions on the newsletter. Your
understanding of climate change impacts
feedback is appreciated!
and adaptation (I&A) issues.
YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

Information dissemination is an essential
part of Canada’s strategy to meet its
international climate change
commitments, which include improving
the knowledge base of climate change
impacts and identifying appropriate
adaptation measures. Information
exchange is essential if we are to
improve our understanding of what
climate change means to us and how
we can take action to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and adapt to a changing
environment.

continued from page 1 . . .

assessment of the state of knowledge on
climate change in northern Canada:
• The Infosources Database.
Volume 1 Number 1
A quarterly newsletter published by the Northern
Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada
ISSN 1703-4256 (Print)
ISSN 1703-4264 (Online)
© 2002 Northern Climate ExChange
Material may be used with appropriate attribution.
Design by Walker LeBrun Creative Services Ltd.
MAILING ADDRESS

• The Directory of Contacts.
• The Matrix Maker.
• The report of a workshop on climate

change research and priorities.
• Two reports assessing the level of

documented local and traditional
northern knowledge about climate
change.

Northern Research Institute
c/o Yukon College
Box 2799, 500 College Drive
Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada Y1A 5K4

• Two reports assessing the

867-668-8735
867-668-8734
EMAIL:
aogden@yukoncollege.yk.ca
WEBSITE: www.taiga.net/nce

• The NCE Knowledge Site, an Internet

PHONE:
FAX:

The Northern Climate
ExChange is funded by
Government of Canada,
Government of Yukon,
and Yukon College.

completeness and value of the
Infosources Database.
resource containing most of these
products, and more.
• An overview report.

All products are available on the Internet
through the Northern Climate ExChange
web site at www.taiga.net/nce.
In general, the NCE Gap Analysis Project
revealed:

7

• Inequalities in the amount of existing

information across systems.
• Greater knowledge and confidence

concerning baseline information and
predicted temperature changes than
for other climate components.
• Strong regional trends for compiled

information, with some regions well
studied and others barely touched.
• Relatively little documented local

and traditional knowledge about
climate change.
More information about climate change
impacts on biological systems with an
economic component than for those
without obvious economic significance.
Many individuals and organizations
contributed to the Gap Analysis Project
by sharing their knowledge and their
ideas about how to proceed. The breadth
of knowledge and diversity of
perspectives represented by these
different groups greatly strengthened the
overall assessment.

Climate change impacts and adaptation
(I&A) research is a relatively new field,
based on understanding that our climate
is changing, with impacts on the natural
and built environment. We need to adapt,
both to minimize impacts and to
maximize gains.
Governments, industry, and others
involved in developing adaptation
strategies need impacts and adaptation
research and monitoring to assist
decision making, planning, and priority
setting. There is also a growing need to
exchange the results of research and
monitoring.
The NCE Gap Analysis Project created
several tools intended to provide an
information base for identifying research,
monitoring, technological, and policy
priorities, and to assist those developing
adaptation strategies for northern
organizations.
Ongoing work will be needed to keep
these tools up to date. For example,
when the Matrix Maker was developed,
the Infosources Database contained
about 500 records. It now contains more
than 1,800 entries, which must be
incorporated into the Matrix Maker.
Further maintenance will be necessary
each time the database is updated. The
Directory of Contacts requires ongoing
promotion to expand its use and,
therefore, usefulness.
A new research network, established in
the fall of 2001, will assume some of the
responsibilities for carrying on this work.
Coordinators for C-CIARN North (the
northern section of the Canadian Climate
Impacts and Adaptation Research
Network) are Claire Eamer at the NCE in
Whitehorse, Michelle Crossfield at Aurora
Research Institute in Inuvik, and Rick
Armstrong at the Nunavut Research
Institute in Iqaluit.
The coordinators will also promote
interaction among scientists involved in
impacts and adaptation studies, raise the

visibility of this research, and provide
opportunities for researchers to interact
with other groups that have a stake in
climate change in northern Canada.
Given the current state of knowledge and
limited resources, what should the
priorities be for research on climate
change in Canada’s North? In this issue
of Weathering Change, Frank Duerden
identifies the need for a community-scale
database on vulnerability of human
activity to climate change, and David Hik
argues for a network of high-quality
monitoring and research sites across
northern Canada. The Gap Analysis
Project itself revealed a need for
information to guide communities,
industries, and governments
incorporating climate change into
management and planning activities.
What else can and should be done?
C-CIARN North has developed a multipronged approach to setting research
priorities for the North, using a survey
and sector-based virtual workshops to
examine research gaps and priorities.

In May 2002, the Joint Ministers of
Energy and the Environment approved a
National Climate Change Adaptation
Framework, and directed officials to:
• Raise awareness of adaptation
• Facilitate and strengthen capacity

for coordinated action on adaptation
• Incorporate adaptation into

government planning processes
• Promote and coordinate research

on adaptation
• Support networks to share

knowledge; and
• Provide methods for adaptation

planning

Finally, the three territorial C-CIARN North
working/advisory groups, with broadened
participation, will review the priorities in
light of regional differences and
concerns. The process will result in a
report on priority research topics for
the North.

Tip:Trees are natural sinks of CO2. Planting
evergreen trees to the northwest of a
house can make an effective wind
break: leafy deciduous trees on
the south side provide shade
in summer, and allow sun in
through the winter.

For more tips from the NCE’s Bob and Dog Mackenzie
go to www.taiga.net/nce/doyourbit.html

6

Infosources Database holds a wealth of information
In a sense, the Database of Climate
Change Information Sources for Northern
Canada (the Infosources Database) predates the Northern Climate ExChange.
It began as a project under the 1995
Canada Country Study. At that time, it was
modest in size—fewer than 150 entries—

reflecting the relatively small amount of
research that had been published on
climate change in northern Canada.
Since the Northern Climate ExChange took
over maintenance of the online database in
2000, research on climate change in the
North has burgeoned, and so has the

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

Directory of Contacts builds linkages
The Directory of Contacts for Climate
Change in the Canadian North is an
online listing of people interested in a
variety of aspects of climate change in
the North.

page at www.taiga.net/nce and click on
the “Directory of Contacts” link at right.
Alternatively, go directly to the Directory
of Contacts at
http://yukon.taiga.net/contacts/.

It’s not a comprehensive listing.
Individuals voluntarily submit their
contact information for posting on the
site. The Northern Climate ExChange
does not add contacts, nor does it
verify the information.

The Directory’s home page offers three
options: adding your own name to the
Directory, viewing the complete list, or
searching the Directory. The Directory
is an online database, searchable by last
name, field of interest, and region of
interest.

The Directory of Contacts allows people
to announce their interests and get in
touch with each other. So far almost 120
people have taken advantage of the
opportunity.
To find the Directory of Contacts, go to
the Northern Climate ExChange home

The Directory of Contacts is intended to
be a service for the climate change
community. Suggestions about how to
increase its usefulness are welcome.

Reports assess climate change information

database. The Infosources Database now
contains more than 1,800 entries, including
journal articles, books, conference
proceedings, data sets, videotapes,
websites, and online resources.

The first step in the NCE Gap Analysis
Project was to review available
documented information about climate,
climate change, and its potential impacts
in northern Canada.

Currently the database is maintained and
updated by the North region of the
Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation
Research Network (C-CIARN North).
C-CIARN North, hosted by the Northern
Climate ExChange, is part of a national
network of researchers and stakeholders
involved in impacts and adaptation
research.

Since the initial literature review identified
a bias towards information from scientific
sources, independent reviews of the
availability of documented local and
traditional knowledge about climate change
and its impacts were commissioned.

The Infosources Database is accessible
over the Internet. To search it directly, go
to the home page of the Northern
Climate ExChange (www.taiga.net/nce)
and click on the “Database of Climate
Change Information Sources” link at
right, or go directly to
http://yukon.taiga.net/infosources/.

Open water during calving season causes problems for caribou.

3

In addition, two independent reviews of
the information contained in the
Infosources Database were
commissioned from respected
academics, one evaluating the
completeness of data on climate change
and human activity in northern Canada
and the second addressing data related to
the biophysical aspects of climate change.
DOCUMENTED TRADITIONAL AND
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

The Infosources home page provides a
graphical interface, in the form of a map
of the regions covered by the database.
Clicking on a region will bring up a search
screen for that region. Alternatively, it’s
possible to search all regions at once.
There is also a text version of the search
page, which bypasses the map.

People living in the North are already
noticing differences in their environment
related to climate change. These direct
observations add an important dimension
to our understanding of climate change.
However, two separate groups of
researchers concluded that very little of
this information has been documented.

The entries can be searched by category,
format, words within the title, author
name, summary, and agency. You can
also call up a full listing of all entries
within a region or a full listing of the
complete database.

GeoNorth Limited of Yellowknife
examined information from Nunavut, the
Northwest Territories, Labrador, and the
northern regions of Alberta, Manitoba,
Ontario, and Quebec. Whitehorse-based
LegendSeekers analyzed documented
sources from the Yukon and northern
British Columbia.

The Infosources Database can also be
searched through the national search
engine of the Canadian Climate Impacts
and Adaptation Research Network
(C-CIARN). The national search engine,
at www.c-ciarn.ca/database.asp, offers a
more limited set of search criteria but
simultaneously searches several other
climate change databases from other
C-CIARN regions and sectors.

The reports’ compilers searched the
Internet, as well as sources such as
existing databases, academic publications,
conference papers, and video archives.
As well, they contacted a number of
northern experts for information.
Both reports emphasize the lack of
documented local and traditional
knowledge about climate change,

indicating a need for further research on
local and traditional knowledge.

literature explicitly addressed the question
of strategies for dealing with uncertainty.

There is so little documented information,
in fact, that it is difficult to assess
whether specific areas of concern are
understood poorly or adequately. Also,
much of the existing documentation
comes from larger sources, general
reports, or publications focussing on
other issues entirely, and is incidental or
descriptive rather than specific.

David Hik’s review related to biophysical
systems and looked at whether the
database is representative of available
information, the extent to which it
provides information for assessing
specific climate change impacts, and
whether the information sources are
regionally representative. He also
provided some recommendations for
future action.

INDEPENDENT REVIEWS OF
DATABASE
The NCE Gap Analysis Project included
two independent reviews of the contents
of the Infosources Database. Frank
Duerden of Ryerson University in Toronto
addressed the completeness of
references to human activity. David Hik of
the University of Alberta in Edmonton
looked at biophysical aspects.
Duerden defined human activity broadly
as economy and land use, dividing the
relevant entries into various activities
involving land use, economic impacts,
infrastructure/community, or hazards and
extreme events.
He found the database a relatively good
inventory of available information. He
concluded, however, that quality
information relating human activity and
climate change impacts in northern
Canada is decidedly lacking. Duerden also
noted that almost nothing in the reviewed
Scientists are monitoring the rate of glacial melt.

Hik noted particularly that the amount of
data available varies widely by region.
Regions with a longer history of access
from southern Canada tend to have a
more complete set of baseline
information. Most of the regional
knowledge gaps are in areas that are
either difficult to access or where no
research infrastructure exists.
Secondly, Hik reported, information about
climatological, physical, and biological
processes is poorly integrated with socioeconomic aspects of the northern
environment. As a consequence, even
where potential climate change impacts
are reasonably well understood, the
implications for human activities and wellbeing are not obvious.
The full texts of all four reports are
available on the CD-ROM accompanying
the NCE Gap Analysis Project overview
report.

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

4

Building the Knowledge Matrices MIKE GILL, ENVIRONMENT CANADA, WHITEHORSE

How to use the Matrix Maker
When you pick a topic, more options will
appear, allowing you to focus your query
more closely by choosing one component
of the matrix and one aspect of climate
change.
For example, if you’re interested in the
boreal ecosystem, you can choose to
focus your question on mammals and,
more specifically, on the impact of
temperature changes on mammals.
Alternatively, you can choose to stay with
the less-focussed query and get a broad
picture of the state of knowledge about
one of the 17 original categories.
Once you’ve made your selections, click
on the busy windmill to execute the
search. If you chose the focussed
question about mammals in the boreal
ecosystem, the result of your query will
look like the screenshot on this page.

Do you want to find out what’s known
about the impacts of climate change on
caribou, what baseline information is
available on aquatic invertebrates in the
North, or how well we can predict the
impact of climate change on forest fires?
The Matrix Maker is for you!
The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE)
Matrix Maker is a graphical Internet
interface to the matrices prepared for the
NCE Gap Analysis Project. It’s reached by
a link on the NCE home page
(www.taiga.net/nce) or by going directly
to http://yukon.taiga.net/matrix.

contributors this issue
Claire Eamer
Aynslie Ogden
Mike Gill
Frank Duerden
David Hik

Once there, you’ll find a set of topics,
representing the 17 matrices, or tables,
set up to analyse the state of knowledge
about climate change in northern Canada.
At the bottom of the screen, a climatefriendly windmill is blowing bits of
coloured paper into the NCE Matrix
Maker’s analysis bin.

5

The results box starts with a rating of the
state of knowledge in the category. In this
case, the rating is Fair. Below the rating is
a set of points briefly summarizing where
research has been done.
The numbers in parentheses after each
point indicate the source of the
information. To see a citation for the
source, click on the References link at the
left of the screen and enter the number in
the search box that appears onscreen.

What are the Knowledge Matrices?
The Knowledge Matrices are a set of
tables representing 16 natural, economic,
and community systems (and one
baseline information system) important to
northern Canada. Each matrix contains
organized information concerning our
current state of knowledge on the impacts
of climate change in northern Canada.
The matrices form a central tool of the
Northern Assessment of the Impacts of
Climate Change Project and were
developed to facilitate the assessment
of the quality of existing information on
climate and climate change and the
identification of gaps in our current
knowledge.
Who was involved in their creation?
The Knowledge Matrices were developed
collaboratively by Anne Munier, a
research assistant with the Northern
Climate ExChange; Joan Eamer, head of
Ecosystem Health with Environment
Canada’s Environmental Conservation
Branch in Whitehorse, Yukon; Aynslie
Ogden, director of the Northern Climate
ExChange; and Mike Gill, a wildlife
ecologist also with Environment Canada’s
Environmental Conservation Branch in
Whitehorse.
How were the matrices created?

Climate change is altering weather patterns in northern Canada

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

A number of steps were involved in
developing the Knowledge Matrices.
Anne Munier conducted an extensive
review of what has been documented
about climate, climate change, and its
potential impacts in northern Canada.
This involved identifying, accessing,
synthesizing, and organizing existing
information related to climate and climate
change in northern Canada.
Information sources included journal
articles, conference proceedings,
databases, public lectures, researcher/
expert surveys, research licence
compendiums, Internet sites, and experts
from governments, universities, and
communities. Compiled information

involved documented scientific, local, and
traditional knowledge, although methods
yielded a bias in finding scientifically
derived information. As a result,
documented local and traditional
knowledge regarding climate change and
its impacts was identified, organized and
analyzed utilizing a different approach.
The huge amount of information gathered
from the review was then organized into
the 17 systems. The natural systems were
boreal, freshwater, tundra, coastal, and
marine ecosystems. The economic
systems were agriculture, fisheries,
forestry, mining, tourism and recreation,
and hunting and trapping. The community
systems were community health, energy
development, infrastructure, transportation,
and waste management. Each system
formed a separate matrix (table).
Main components of each of the systems
were identified and listed in the table
rows. Listed in the columns are three
aspects of climate change—temperature
change, precipitation change, and other

climate and indirect impacts—as well as
“baseline knowledge,” which does not
take climate change into account.
We examined the cross-relationship
between these components and the
general climate change projections,
assessing the current state of knowledge
for each of them. Information supporting
the assessment for each crossrelationship was entered into the cells of
the matrix.
This information included the type of
knowledge, location of studies, and time
span of research as well as current
deficiencies in knowledge. It did not
include information on how system
components will be impacted by the
predicted climate changes.
Each cell was also assigned a ranking of
“good,” “fair,” or “poor” to denote the
current state of knowledge of the specific
topic/relationship. Rankings were
assigned systematically based on a series
of questions concerning the quality and
quantity of existing information.

4

Building the Knowledge Matrices MIKE GILL, ENVIRONMENT CANADA, WHITEHORSE

How to use the Matrix Maker
When you pick a topic, more options will
appear, allowing you to focus your query
more closely by choosing one component
of the matrix and one aspect of climate
change.
For example, if you’re interested in the
boreal ecosystem, you can choose to
focus your question on mammals and,
more specifically, on the impact of
temperature changes on mammals.
Alternatively, you can choose to stay with
the less-focussed query and get a broad
picture of the state of knowledge about
one of the 17 original categories.
Once you’ve made your selections, click
on the busy windmill to execute the
search. If you chose the focussed
question about mammals in the boreal
ecosystem, the result of your query will
look like the screenshot on this page.

Do you want to find out what’s known
about the impacts of climate change on
caribou, what baseline information is
available on aquatic invertebrates in the
North, or how well we can predict the
impact of climate change on forest fires?
The Matrix Maker is for you!
The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE)
Matrix Maker is a graphical Internet
interface to the matrices prepared for the
NCE Gap Analysis Project. It’s reached by
a link on the NCE home page
(www.taiga.net/nce) or by going directly
to http://yukon.taiga.net/matrix.

contributors this issue
Claire Eamer
Aynslie Ogden
Mike Gill
Frank Duerden
David Hik

Once there, you’ll find a set of topics,
representing the 17 matrices, or tables,
set up to analyse the state of knowledge
about climate change in northern Canada.
At the bottom of the screen, a climatefriendly windmill is blowing bits of
coloured paper into the NCE Matrix
Maker’s analysis bin.

5

The results box starts with a rating of the
state of knowledge in the category. In this
case, the rating is Fair. Below the rating is
a set of points briefly summarizing where
research has been done.
The numbers in parentheses after each
point indicate the source of the
information. To see a citation for the
source, click on the References link at the
left of the screen and enter the number in
the search box that appears onscreen.

What are the Knowledge Matrices?
The Knowledge Matrices are a set of
tables representing 16 natural, economic,
and community systems (and one
baseline information system) important to
northern Canada. Each matrix contains
organized information concerning our
current state of knowledge on the impacts
of climate change in northern Canada.
The matrices form a central tool of the
Northern Assessment of the Impacts of
Climate Change Project and were
developed to facilitate the assessment
of the quality of existing information on
climate and climate change and the
identification of gaps in our current
knowledge.
Who was involved in their creation?
The Knowledge Matrices were developed
collaboratively by Anne Munier, a
research assistant with the Northern
Climate ExChange; Joan Eamer, head of
Ecosystem Health with Environment
Canada’s Environmental Conservation
Branch in Whitehorse, Yukon; Aynslie
Ogden, director of the Northern Climate
ExChange; and Mike Gill, a wildlife
ecologist also with Environment Canada’s
Environmental Conservation Branch in
Whitehorse.
How were the matrices created?

Climate change is altering weather patterns in northern Canada

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

A number of steps were involved in
developing the Knowledge Matrices.
Anne Munier conducted an extensive
review of what has been documented
about climate, climate change, and its
potential impacts in northern Canada.
This involved identifying, accessing,
synthesizing, and organizing existing
information related to climate and climate
change in northern Canada.
Information sources included journal
articles, conference proceedings,
databases, public lectures, researcher/
expert surveys, research licence
compendiums, Internet sites, and experts
from governments, universities, and
communities. Compiled information

involved documented scientific, local, and
traditional knowledge, although methods
yielded a bias in finding scientifically
derived information. As a result,
documented local and traditional
knowledge regarding climate change and
its impacts was identified, organized and
analyzed utilizing a different approach.
The huge amount of information gathered
from the review was then organized into
the 17 systems. The natural systems were
boreal, freshwater, tundra, coastal, and
marine ecosystems. The economic
systems were agriculture, fisheries,
forestry, mining, tourism and recreation,
and hunting and trapping. The community
systems were community health, energy
development, infrastructure, transportation,
and waste management. Each system
formed a separate matrix (table).
Main components of each of the systems
were identified and listed in the table
rows. Listed in the columns are three
aspects of climate change—temperature
change, precipitation change, and other

climate and indirect impacts—as well as
“baseline knowledge,” which does not
take climate change into account.
We examined the cross-relationship
between these components and the
general climate change projections,
assessing the current state of knowledge
for each of them. Information supporting
the assessment for each crossrelationship was entered into the cells of
the matrix.
This information included the type of
knowledge, location of studies, and time
span of research as well as current
deficiencies in knowledge. It did not
include information on how system
components will be impacted by the
predicted climate changes.
Each cell was also assigned a ranking of
“good,” “fair,” or “poor” to denote the
current state of knowledge of the specific
topic/relationship. Rankings were
assigned systematically based on a series
of questions concerning the quality and
quantity of existing information.

6

Infosources Database holds a wealth of information
In a sense, the Database of Climate
Change Information Sources for Northern
Canada (the Infosources Database) predates the Northern Climate ExChange.
It began as a project under the 1995
Canada Country Study. At that time, it was
modest in size—fewer than 150 entries—

reflecting the relatively small amount of
research that had been published on
climate change in northern Canada.
Since the Northern Climate ExChange took
over maintenance of the online database in
2000, research on climate change in the
North has burgeoned, and so has the

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

Directory of Contacts builds linkages
The Directory of Contacts for Climate
Change in the Canadian North is an
online listing of people interested in a
variety of aspects of climate change in
the North.

page at www.taiga.net/nce and click on
the “Directory of Contacts” link at right.
Alternatively, go directly to the Directory
of Contacts at
http://yukon.taiga.net/contacts/.

It’s not a comprehensive listing.
Individuals voluntarily submit their
contact information for posting on the
site. The Northern Climate ExChange
does not add contacts, nor does it
verify the information.

The Directory’s home page offers three
options: adding your own name to the
Directory, viewing the complete list, or
searching the Directory. The Directory
is an online database, searchable by last
name, field of interest, and region of
interest.

The Directory of Contacts allows people
to announce their interests and get in
touch with each other. So far almost 120
people have taken advantage of the
opportunity.
To find the Directory of Contacts, go to
the Northern Climate ExChange home

The Directory of Contacts is intended to
be a service for the climate change
community. Suggestions about how to
increase its usefulness are welcome.

Reports assess climate change information

database. The Infosources Database now
contains more than 1,800 entries, including
journal articles, books, conference
proceedings, data sets, videotapes,
websites, and online resources.

The first step in the NCE Gap Analysis
Project was to review available
documented information about climate,
climate change, and its potential impacts
in northern Canada.

Currently the database is maintained and
updated by the North region of the
Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation
Research Network (C-CIARN North).
C-CIARN North, hosted by the Northern
Climate ExChange, is part of a national
network of researchers and stakeholders
involved in impacts and adaptation
research.

Since the initial literature review identified
a bias towards information from scientific
sources, independent reviews of the
availability of documented local and
traditional knowledge about climate change
and its impacts were commissioned.

The Infosources Database is accessible
over the Internet. To search it directly, go
to the home page of the Northern
Climate ExChange (www.taiga.net/nce)
and click on the “Database of Climate
Change Information Sources” link at
right, or go directly to
http://yukon.taiga.net/infosources/.

Open water during calving season causes problems for caribou.

3

In addition, two independent reviews of
the information contained in the
Infosources Database were
commissioned from respected
academics, one evaluating the
completeness of data on climate change
and human activity in northern Canada
and the second addressing data related to
the biophysical aspects of climate change.
DOCUMENTED TRADITIONAL AND
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

The Infosources home page provides a
graphical interface, in the form of a map
of the regions covered by the database.
Clicking on a region will bring up a search
screen for that region. Alternatively, it’s
possible to search all regions at once.
There is also a text version of the search
page, which bypasses the map.

People living in the North are already
noticing differences in their environment
related to climate change. These direct
observations add an important dimension
to our understanding of climate change.
However, two separate groups of
researchers concluded that very little of
this information has been documented.

The entries can be searched by category,
format, words within the title, author
name, summary, and agency. You can
also call up a full listing of all entries
within a region or a full listing of the
complete database.

GeoNorth Limited of Yellowknife
examined information from Nunavut, the
Northwest Territories, Labrador, and the
northern regions of Alberta, Manitoba,
Ontario, and Quebec. Whitehorse-based
LegendSeekers analyzed documented
sources from the Yukon and northern
British Columbia.

The Infosources Database can also be
searched through the national search
engine of the Canadian Climate Impacts
and Adaptation Research Network
(C-CIARN). The national search engine,
at www.c-ciarn.ca/database.asp, offers a
more limited set of search criteria but
simultaneously searches several other
climate change databases from other
C-CIARN regions and sectors.

The reports’ compilers searched the
Internet, as well as sources such as
existing databases, academic publications,
conference papers, and video archives.
As well, they contacted a number of
northern experts for information.
Both reports emphasize the lack of
documented local and traditional
knowledge about climate change,

indicating a need for further research on
local and traditional knowledge.

literature explicitly addressed the question
of strategies for dealing with uncertainty.

There is so little documented information,
in fact, that it is difficult to assess
whether specific areas of concern are
understood poorly or adequately. Also,
much of the existing documentation
comes from larger sources, general
reports, or publications focussing on
other issues entirely, and is incidental or
descriptive rather than specific.

David Hik’s review related to biophysical
systems and looked at whether the
database is representative of available
information, the extent to which it
provides information for assessing
specific climate change impacts, and
whether the information sources are
regionally representative. He also
provided some recommendations for
future action.

INDEPENDENT REVIEWS OF
DATABASE
The NCE Gap Analysis Project included
two independent reviews of the contents
of the Infosources Database. Frank
Duerden of Ryerson University in Toronto
addressed the completeness of
references to human activity. David Hik of
the University of Alberta in Edmonton
looked at biophysical aspects.
Duerden defined human activity broadly
as economy and land use, dividing the
relevant entries into various activities
involving land use, economic impacts,
infrastructure/community, or hazards and
extreme events.
He found the database a relatively good
inventory of available information. He
concluded, however, that quality
information relating human activity and
climate change impacts in northern
Canada is decidedly lacking. Duerden also
noted that almost nothing in the reviewed
Scientists are monitoring the rate of glacial melt.

Hik noted particularly that the amount of
data available varies widely by region.
Regions with a longer history of access
from southern Canada tend to have a
more complete set of baseline
information. Most of the regional
knowledge gaps are in areas that are
either difficult to access or where no
research infrastructure exists.
Secondly, Hik reported, information about
climatological, physical, and biological
processes is poorly integrated with socioeconomic aspects of the northern
environment. As a consequence, even
where potential climate change impacts
are reasonably well understood, the
implications for human activities and wellbeing are not obvious.
The full texts of all four reports are
available on the CD-ROM accompanying
the NCE Gap Analysis Project overview
report.

YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

2

Welcome to the first edition of Weathering Change

As part of the national strategy to meet
these commitments, the National Climate
Change Process established the Canadian
Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research
Network (C-CIARN) and the Public
Education and Outreach (PEO) Hubs,
which have offices across the country.
The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE),

Taking the next step on the Gap Analysis: C-CIARN North

established in 2000 by the Government
Our work on the Gap Analysis Project,
of Canada, Yukon Government, and
which is summarized in this inaugural
Yukon College,
edition of Weathering
delivers these
Change, first brought
programs in the
to our attention the
Yukon. The mandate
need for a vehicle to
of the NCE is to
summarize the latest
provide an
in research and
independent source
technical information.
of information,
Weathering Change
develop shared
Permafrost makes building in the North tricky. was designed with
understanding, and
this in mind. Each
promote action on climate change in
issue will feature articles on a selected
northern Canada.
I&A topic that is of relevance to northern
communities and environments.
This newsletter is a joint initiative of the
NCE and its PEO Hub and C-CIARN North
Please contact Aynslie Ogden at
programs. These programs have a
aogden@yukoncollege.yk.ca or
common objective: to improve information
867-668-8735 with your comments and
exchange and increase the visibility and
suggestions on the newsletter. Your
understanding of climate change impacts
feedback is appreciated!
and adaptation (I&A) issues.
YUKON GOV’T PHOTO

Information dissemination is an essential
part of Canada’s strategy to meet its
international climate change
commitments, which include improving
the knowledge base of climate change
impacts and identifying appropriate
adaptation measures. Information
exchange is essential if we are to
improve our understanding of what
climate change means to us and how
we can take action to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and adapt to a changing
environment.

continued from page 1 . . .

assessment of the state of knowledge on
climate change in northern Canada:
• The Infosources Database.
Volume 1 Number 1
A quarterly newsletter published by the Northern
Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada
ISSN 1703-4256 (Print)
ISSN 1703-4264 (Online)
© 2002 Northern Climate ExChange
Material may be used with appropriate attribution.
Design by Walker LeBrun Creative Services Ltd.
MAILING ADDRESS

• The Directory of Contacts.
• The Matrix Maker.
• The report of a workshop on climate

change research and priorities.
• Two reports assessing the level of

documented local and traditional
northern knowledge about climate
change.

Northern Research Institute
c/o Yukon College
Box 2799, 500 College Drive
Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada Y1A 5K4

• Two reports assessing the

867-668-8735
867-668-8734
EMAIL:
aogden@yukoncollege.yk.ca
WEBSITE: www.taiga.net/nce

• The NCE Knowledge Site, an Internet

PHONE:
FAX:

The Northern Climate
ExChange is funded by
Government of Canada,
Government of Yukon,
and Yukon College.

completeness and value of the
Infosources Database.
resource containing most of these
products, and more.
• An overview report.

All products are available on the Internet
through the Northern Climate ExChange
web site at www.taiga.net/nce.
In general, the NCE Gap Analysis Project
revealed:

7

• Inequalities in the amount of existing

information across systems.
• Greater knowledge and confidence

concerning baseline information and
predicted temperature changes than
for other climate components.
• Strong regional trends for compiled

information, with some regions well
studied and others barely touched.
• Relatively little documented local

and traditional knowledge about
climate change.
More information about climate change
impacts on biological systems with an
economic component than for those
without obvious economic significance.
Many individuals and organizations
contributed to the Gap Analysis Project
by sharing their knowledge and their
ideas about how to proceed. The breadth
of knowledge and diversity of
perspectives represented by these
different groups greatly strengthened the
overall assessment.

Climate change impacts and adaptation
(I&A) research is a relatively new field,
based on understanding that our climate
is changing, with impacts on the natural
and built environment. We need to adapt,
both to minimize impacts and to
maximize gains.
Governments, industry, and others
involved in developing adaptation
strategies need impacts and adaptation
research and monitoring to assist
decision making, planning, and priority
setting. There is also a growing need to
exchange the results of research and
monitoring.
The NCE Gap Analysis Project created
several tools intended to provide an
information base for identifying research,
monitoring, technological, and policy
priorities, and to assist those developing
adaptation strategies for northern
organizations.
Ongoing work will be needed to keep
these tools up to date. For example,
when the Matrix Maker was developed,
the Infosources Database contained
about 500 records. It now contains more
than 1,800 entries, which must be
incorporated into the Matrix Maker.
Further maintenance will be necessary
each time the database is updated. The
Directory of Contacts requires ongoing
promotion to expand its use and,
therefore, usefulness.
A new research network, established in
the fall of 2001, will assume some of the
responsibilities for carrying on this work.
Coordinators for C-CIARN North (the
northern section of the Canadian Climate
Impacts and Adaptation Research
Network) are Claire Eamer at the NCE in
Whitehorse, Michelle Crossfield at Aurora
Research Institute in Inuvik, and Rick
Armstrong at the Nunavut Research
Institute in Iqaluit.
The coordinators will also promote
interaction among scientists involved in
impacts and adaptation studies, raise the

visibility of this research, and provide
opportunities for researchers to interact
with other groups that have a stake in
climate change in northern Canada.
Given the current state of knowledge and
limited resources, what should the
priorities be for research on climate
change in Canada’s North? In this issue
of Weathering Change, Frank Duerden
identifies the need for a community-scale
database on vulnerability of human
activity to climate change, and David Hik
argues for a network of high-quality
monitoring and research sites across
northern Canada. The Gap Analysis
Project itself revealed a need for
information to guide communities,
industries, and governments
incorporating climate change into
management and planning activities.
What else can and should be done?
C-CIARN North has developed a multipronged approach to setting research
priorities for the North, using a survey
and sector-based virtual workshops to
examine research gaps and priorities.

In May 2002, the Joint Ministers of
Energy and the Environment approved a
National Climate Change Adaptation
Framework, and directed officials to:
• Raise awareness of adaptation
• Facilitate and strengthen capacity

for coordinated action on adaptation
• Incorporate adaptation into

government planning processes
• Promote and coordinate research

on adaptation
• Support networks to share

knowledge; and
• Provide methods for adaptation

planning

Finally, the three territorial C-CIARN North
working/advisory groups, with broadened
participation, will review the priorities in
light of regional differences and
concerns. The process will result in a
report on priority research topics for
the North.

Tip:Trees are natural sinks of CO2. Planting
evergreen trees to the northwest of a
house can make an effective wind
break: leafy deciduous trees on
the south side provide shade
in summer, and allow sun in
through the winter.

For more tips from the NCE’s Bob and Dog Mackenzie
go to www.taiga.net/nce/doyourbit.html

8

Bringing climate change impact
assessment to the human scale
FRANK DUERDEN, PROFESSOR, SCHOOL OF APPLIED GEOGRAPHY,
RYERSON UNIVERSITY

The message the NCE Gap Analysis delivers about our
understanding of the impacts of climate change on human
activity is not very reassuring because it tells us that much
of the information is not very useful for application at the
scale at which people live.
Changes in the physical environment cannot be
translated into local impacts without consideration of
conditions on the ground in places that are affected,
community histories and economies, and the attitudes of local
populations and decision makers.
Information deficiencies are compounded by the fact that,
while it is widely recognized that the importance of
information lies in reducing uncertainty by pointing decision
makers towards the most probable futures, relatively little
is known about who is listening and who is using the
information.
The Gap exercise indicates a need to develop a rigorous
community-scale database focused on vulnerability of human
activity to climate change. Such a pan-northern endeavour
would assist in making difficult decisions about allocation of
resources, provide more balanced assessments of possible
impacts, and enable local decision makers to assess threat,
vulnerability, and opportunity as a basis for formulating
responses.
The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) and the current
Gap Analysis were very cost-effective research undertakings,
exemplifying the real value added through cooperation among
governments, universities and communities. While they only
provided glimpses of a much larger picture—MBIS
exemplifying the type of research that needs to be done
across the North, and the Gap Analysis telling us what we
need to know—they pointed the way towards the future.
Climate change has the capacity to fundamentally change life
in the North, but the transition to a warmer world would be a
much less uncertain process if this rich nation, which prides
itself on its “northern” image, were to commit itself to
supporting a systematic pan-northern assessment of
community vulnerability.

My number one priority?
Developing a network of
northern research observatories
DAVID HIK, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AND CANADA RESEARCH CHAIR
IN NORTHERN ECOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA

One of the greatest problems identified by the NCE Gap
Analysis was the paucity of good information from baseline
monitoring and experimental studies against which to
assess natural variability and change.
Unless a concerted effort is made to establish and/or
maintain a network of high quality monitoring and research
sites across northern Canada, it will remain very difficult to
accurately assess the impacts of climate change and
variability. Consequently, science will be unable to provide
useful information for communities and governments to plan
for the future.
To provide this information, it is essential to observe ecological
and physical phenomena over many years at large spatial
scales. A network of research observatories would promote
comparative research across northern ecosystems, and help to
ensure a synthesis of these results in a national and
international context.
I recommend the development of a network of integrated
ecological, physical, and climatological research observatories.
There are a number of long-term research efforts in northern
Canada, all struggling to secure adequate funding, that could
easily fall under this program—for example, the Canadian
Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) and the Kluane
Ecosystem Monitoring Project (KEMP).
Models for such programs include the US and International
Long-term Ecological Research Programs (LTER and ILTER).
More generally, these research programs are sometimes
referred to as “Integrated Regional Impact Studies” (IRIS).
A good example in northern Canada was the Mackenzie Basin
Impact Study during the 1990s.
Long-term commitments to monitoring and research in
northern Canada are not impossible to imagine, but success
will depend on engaging communities, governments, and
scientists in collaborative efforts. Such collaborations occur
already, but are often sporadically or poorly funded.
Stable baseline funding is a prerequisite, but even more
important is the recognition that only coordinated efforts will
provide the information that is required for developing
practical, sensible, and sustainable adaptation strategies in the
face of unprecedented environmental change in the North.

The Northern Climate ExChange Gap Analysis Project
An assessment of the current state of knowledge
about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada
The substantial increase in climate
Beginning in 1999 and carrying on into
change research in the past decade has
2002, the Northern Climate ExChange
made it difficult to keep track of all the
(NCE) coordinated the Gap Analysis
various projects related to understanding,
Project, aimed at assessing the current
preventing, and mitigating climate change
state of knowledge about climate change
impacts. This situation has almost
and its impacts in northern Canada. With
certainly led to overlapping research,
Environment Canada as its main partner,
unnecessary duplication of effort, and
and with consulting help from the
ineffective use of limited time and
University of Alberta, Ryerson University,
resources. In addition,
GeoNorth Limited
there has been no
and LegendSeekers
Sharing
information
among
overall vision guiding
Anthropological
all parties and interest groups Research, NCE set
the allocation of
efforts and resources.
out to meet several
can be a challenge,
major objectives:
but it is essential.
Communication has
• Determine what is
been limited among
the various groups and
currently known
organizations involved in and concerned
about climate change and its impacts
about climate change: researchers,
in northern Canada, and incorporate
communities, indigenous peoples, nonthis information into a database.
government organizations, industry, and
• Identify trends or patterns in the
many levels of government. This has
available information.
made it difficult to exchange information,
• Use this information to help identify
to correlate scientific knowledge and local
research, monitoring, technological,
information, and to return the results of
and policy priorities.
research to the people experiencing the
• Improve collaboration and coordination
effects of climate change most directly.
among and between researchers,
Sharing information among all of these
communities, governments, nondifferent parties and interest groups can
government organizations, and
be a challenge, but it is essential. When
residents of northern Canada.
knowledge is not shared, everyone’s
The overall goal of the project was to
understanding of climate change and its
determine where information on climate
impacts is diminished.

change is adequate and where there are
gaps. Documenting existing knowledge
will provide sound baseline information
on what is known about climate change
and its effects on northern Canada. This
information will assist those attempting
to establish priorities for climate change
research, monitoring, technological
development, policy development, and
other matters in Canada’s North. It will
also help to facilitate links between
different people and organizations
working towards similar goals.
The NCE Gap Analysis Project has
created several products that offer an
continued on page 2 . . .

contents
2 Welcome to
3 Reports assess climate change
4 How to use the Matrix Maker
5 Building the Knowledge Matrices
6 Infosources Database
6 Directory of Contacts
7 Taking the next step
8 ExChanging Views